Why the power grid is under strain, and what your family can do

The short answer

Electricity use in the United States is rising again after years of being flat, and data centres are the biggest reason. At the same time, some older power plants are closing and extreme weather keeps pushing the grid hard. Official reports say the cushion of spare power is thinner in several regions. That does not mean blackouts are certain. It means a few days of backup at home is a sensible, inexpensive habit.

What is actually changing

For a long time, the United States used about the same amount of electricity each year. That is changing. In January 2026 the Energy Information Administration projected U.S. electricity use to grow 1% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. It said this would be the first time since 2007 that demand rises four years in a row, and the strongest four-year growth since 2000. The main driver it named is large computing facilities, including data centers.

In September 2026 the EIA said it expects record generation of 4,368 billion kilowatthours in 2026.

What NERC says

NERC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, is the body that watches over the reliability of the bulk power system. Its 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, reported by POWER Magazine on January 29, 2026, says:

• 13 of 23 assessment areas face resource adequacy challenges over the next five years.
• Summer peak demand is projected to rise by 224 GW and winter peak demand by 245 GW over 2026 to 2035.
• Areas including MISO, PJM, ERCOT and parts of the West are named as high risk by 2030.

The winter picture is similar. NERC's 2025-2026 winter assessment, summarised by Power Engineering, says peak demand forecasts rose about 20 GW (2.5%) while total resources increased by only 9.4 GW. It lists Texas, parts of the Southeast, New England and Eastern Canada, and parts of the West as elevated risk if conditions turn extreme.

A signal from the biggest grid

PJM runs the grid across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest. Its December 2025 auction for 2027-28 cleared at the price cap of $333.44/MW-day, a record for the third auction in a row. PJM procured about 6,625 MW below its reserve margin target, and its demand forecast rose by 5,250 MW, almost entirely driven by data centers.

In summer 2026, PJM issued a Maximum Generation Alert during a heat wave and received a Department of Energy order that lets it direct data centres and other large loads with backup generation to curtail as a last resort, according to PJM's own hot weather update.

The other side of the story

It is fair to note that experts disagree. The Department of Energy's July 2025 report says blackouts could increase by 100 times in 2030 if reliable plants keep retiring without replacement. That is a modelled scenario, not a prediction, and some analysts dispute it.

Grid Strategies, an energy consultancy, argued in March 2026 that NERC's long-term assessment is too pessimistic. It says data centre load may be double-counted or delayed. And NERC's 2026 summer assessment, summarised by Foley & Lardner, found every area adequate for normal summer demand, with elevated-risk areas falling from six to three, thanks to more than 58 GW of new generation.

So the honest summary is this: normal days look fine, extreme days look tighter, and the experts differ on how much.

What this means for a household

Most outages are caused by local problems such as storms, ice, heat or a failed line, not by national shortfalls. A thinner cushion mostly matters on the worst days, when cold or heat drives demand up and plants or lines fail. That is also when repairs take longest and many neighbours are affected at once.

For a family, that points to a short list of ordinary needs:

• Light and phone power. A flashlight or lantern for each room you use, and a power bank so phones last.
• Information. A radio that works without power so you can hear alerts if mobile networks are down.
• Water and food. Ready.gov recommends one gallon of water per person per day for several days, plus non-perishable food.
• Warmth and safety. A battery carbon monoxide alarm and a plan to stay warm without using a gas oven or an indoor generator.
• A fridge plan. Ready.gov says a full freezer keeps its temperature for about 48 hours and a refrigerator for about four, if the doors stay closed.

If you want to keep a fridge or a few lights running for longer, a portable power station is the next step. It is optional, and our guide to running a fridge on a power station explains how to do it safely.

What to do this week

1. Check you have a flashlight and spare batteries where you can find them in the dark.
2. Charge a power bank and keep it topped up.
3. Store water. Aim for one gallon per person per day for at least three days.
4. Test the battery in your carbon monoxide alarm.
5. Write down key phone numbers on paper and agree on a family meeting place.
6. Read our 72-hour blackout plan.

What this guide does not say

We are not predicting a collapse of the grid, and nothing here means you should be afraid. Reports from NERC, the EIA and the Department of Energy describe risks under certain conditions, and the models behind them are debated. The practical response is the same one emergency agencies have given for years: have several days of basics at home, and know what you would do without power.

You can see the dated news behind this guide on our news page.

Next steps

• Build your plan with the 72-hour blackout plan.
• See what a full home kit looks like in the Blackout Kit.
• Learn how to stay warm without power.
• Write a family emergency plan.